Associate Professor Robert Kopal, PhD, Delivered a Lecture “Climate Security – Causes and Consequences” at This Year’s Croatian Days of Security Conference
On October 16, 2024, our Chief Science Officer, Associate Professor Robert Kopal, PhD, had the honour and privilege of being an invited keynote speaker at the Croatian Days of Security 2024, having held the lecture titled “Climate Security – Causes and Consequences.”
Climate change exacerbates food, water, and livelihood insecurity, triggering cascading effects such as heightened competition for natural resources, social disruption, and displacement. These dynamics can lead to increased tensions, conflicts, and instability in specific countries or regions. The concept of climate security focuses on understanding how the climate crisis impacts peace and security.
The Key Focus of the Lecture
Dr. Kopal’s work on this lecture began a year ago, with a core goal of answering critical questions about the points where climate and environmental challenges intersect with security.
The event was organized by the Croatian Association of Security Managers, which also announced the lecture.
In his post: CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS MANAGEMENT: SCENARIOS & INDICATORS
Dr. Kopal shared his insights addressing topics like:
(1) CLIMATE SECURITY: WHERE CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL FIELDS MEET SECURITY!
(2) ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS COULD HIT THE POINT OF NO RETURN!
(3) ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS MANAGEMENT DEPENDS ON INDICATORS! BUT WHICH ONES?
In the post, he concluded with a key message: “DAMAGE CONTROL IS GOOD; DAMAGE PREVENTION IS BETTER!”
This principle also shaped his lecture, which is available to view in full via a provided link.
The core premise of the lecture underscores that climate security is about the impacts of the climate crisis on peace and security, particularly in fragile, conflict-affected settings.
It explored three key dimensions:
1) Climate Change: Security
Climate change exacerbates food, water, and livelihood insecurity, with cascading effects such as increased competition for resources, social unrest, and displacement. These factors can lead to heightened tensions, conflicts, and instability in countries or regions.
2) Security: Climate Change
In conflict-affected areas, the impacts of climate change can intensify or prolong conflicts, making peacebuilding and stability more challenging.
3) Security: Climate Change
Conflict can disrupt or obstruct climate action, including destruction of critical resources (energy, water, agriculture) or delaying mitigation and adaptation efforts.
To help navigate the lecture, here are key timeline markers:
- What is climate security?
- Common climate-induced risks to peace and security
- Data-driven insights
- Jablanica disaster and a potential ecological challenge in Croatia
- WEF 2024: Current risk landscape
- What will the climate feel like in 60 years?
- Global risks interconnection map
- Climate security & climate change interplay
- Beyond the Eye of the Storm: Pathways to security implications
- Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) insights
- Somalia famine scenario analysis (1983/84)
- Security dilemma examples
- Arctic ice-albedo feedback effects
- Game theory perspectives on global climate change
- EU ETS overview
- Digital twins and “Destination Earth” initiatives
- High-resolution satellite data analysis using AI
- Marine blooms of 2024
- Winners of the Regenerative Blue Economy Challenge (WEF 2024)
- EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence
- Climate-security nexus in joint communications
- Three threats to human existence (2025)
- R&D model insights